The US election was always going to be divisive. But the rate the US is going, words like 'controversy,' 'polarised' and 'unyielding' are hardly surprising anymore.
It's refreshing, then, to hear some (relatively) good news could come out of this turbulent situation – especially when stocks (historically) dip each time a new human totem is about to be nailed up at the new poster person of the United States of America.
On that note: global financial firm UBS has tapped their calculators to assess how the likely outcomes of the election may impact the stocks everyday Australians are invested in.
According to 9News, UBS concluded that historically, "the ASX 200 has rallied 6.9 per cent in the three months after a US election, regardless of the result."
"UBS researchers also believe the best result for Aussie stocks would be a Democratic sweep, meaning Joe Biden becomes president and takes control of the senate," 9News reports.
"Australia could benefit from stronger US economic growth under a Democratic sweep, particularly given the higher weight to cyclicals," the researchers noted.
Though the ABC reported this evening "whoever gets in is facing a potentially gridlocked congress," a Biden win is not a bad outcome for Australian investors – so long as there is not a contested election and civil unrest.
Despite the phrase many will have heard thrown around that 'despite his flaws, Trump is better for the economy,' when it comes to Australian investors it's not that simple.
According to the UBS researchers, "while higher tax rates in the US [which would likely happen under Biden] could drag on S&P 500 EPS, it would make Australian equities a relatively more attractive place to invest."
"Indeed, the AU – US corporate tax rate differential potentially narrows from 9 per cent to as low as 2 per cent under Biden's proposal."
"Our global equity strategists view a Biden win with a Republican Senate as a good outcome for US equities as it would likely see Biden's trade policy effectively combined with Trump's status quo on tax policy," the researchers added.
Another important factor to consider, in terms of Australian equities, is a Biden led trade policy. This is because, though more often than not the ASX follows Wall Street, what really drives where our equities go is "global macro themes."
James Whelan, an Investment Manager at VFS Group in Sydney, told DMARGE these "global macro themes" often make it seem like the ASX follows Wall Street, but in fact it's more the case that both Wall Street and the ASX are reading the worldwide room.
Not that the success (or otherwise) of NASDAQ doesn't affect Australians' confidence in its own market, but correlation and causation are a little bit jumbled.
2 MINUTES WITH | James Whelan, VFS Group Investment Manager
On why the market is rising as #Election2020 counting continues: "It's the unwinding of the blue wave trade."
Full interview on SBS On The Money podcast/videostream later this evening.@SBSNews @jameswhelan42 #ausbiz pic.twitter.com/C0mFyOc8IA
— Ricardo Gonçalves (@BUSINESSricardo) November 5, 2020
Whelan also, speaking to SBS, said "my message to investors is pick and choose which sectors you're going into, don't just buy an entire index willy nilly."
He also said there is "also potentially a softer position [coming up] on China," if Biden were to be elected, which could potentially put Australia in a better position as we would – again, potentially – be less stuck between two warring parents of US and China.
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The post The Naive US Economy ‘Fantasy’ Australians Need To Stop Believing appeared first on DMARGE.
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